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Links To Research

iPredict has a primary purpose in research. Below is a sample of the rapidly growing literature in this field.

Recommended Papers

Wolfers, Justin and Eric Zitzewitz (2004), "Prediction markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2), Spring 2004 here

Hanson, Robin (2008), "Shall We Vote On Values, But Bet On Beliefs?" Forthcoming, Journal of Political Philosophy here

Cowgill, Bo, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz (2008), "Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google," working paper here

Recommended Books

Surowiecki, James (2004) The Wisdom of Crowds (New York: Doubleday, 2004) summary, review, buy.

Abramowicz, Michael (2008), Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making, Yale University Press. review, review, buy.

Other Papers

Wolfers, Justin and Eric Zitzewitz (2008), "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," Forthcoming, The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd ed. Larry Blume and Steve Durlauf (eds.) here

Hanson, Robin (2003), "Combinatorial Information Market Design," Information Systems Frontiers 5:1, 107–119 here

Chen, Kay-Yut, and Charles Plott (2002), "Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem," Social Science Working Paper 1131 here

Wolfers, Justin and Eric Zitzewitz (2006), "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices As Probabilities," NBER Working Paper 12200 here

Manski, Charles F. (2005), "Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets," NBER Working Paper 10359 here

Hanson, Robin (2007), "Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation," The Journal of Prediction Markets, Volume 1, Number 1, February 2007 , pp. 3-15(13) draft paper here

Hanson, Robin and Ryan Oprea (2004), "Manipulators Increase Information Market Accuracy," working paper here

Roll, Richard (1984), "Orange Juice and Weather," The American Economic Review, Vol. 74, No. 5. (Dec., 1984), pp. 861-880.

Abramowicz, Michael (2007), "The Politics of Prediction," Innovations: Technology, Governance, Globalization, 2007, vol. 2, issue 3, pages 89-96.

Berg, Joyce and Thomas Rietz (2003), "Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems," Information Systems Frontiers 5:1, 79–93 here

Servan-Schreiber, Emile, Justin Wolfers, David M. Pennock, Brian Galebach (2004), "Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?", Electronic Markets, 14-3, September here

Pennock, David et. al. (2001), "The Real Power of Artificial Markets," Science 291: 987-988, (February 9) here